统计与信息论坛

在多变性、不确定性、复杂性、模糊性不断凸显的背景下，打造企业韧性是实现经济高质量发展的前提和基础。基于2011—2022年中国A股非金融上市公司的数据测算企业韧性，并实证检验社会保险缴费负担下降时企业韧性的影响。研究结果表明，社会保险缴费负担下降有利于企业韧性的提升。以2019年国务院办公厅出台的《降低社会保险费率综合方案》为准自然实验进行政策效应分析，发现企业社会保险降费显著增强企业韧性。机制分析发现，减轻社会保险缴费负担主要通过削减劳动力成本、增加研发投入等促进企业韧性提升。异质性分析结果表明，对劳动密集型、非高科技、国有企业而言，社会保险降费对企业韧性的积极影响更为明显。从维度分析结果来看，社会保险缴费负担下降主要是通过恢复能力和成长能力两个维度提升企业韧性。因此，应持续落实阶段性社会保险缴费减负政策，加大对企业研发创新的支持力度，并进一步完善针对不同类型企业的差异化优惠政策设计。

In contexts characterized by mounting volatility,uncertainty,complexity,and ambiguity(VUCA),the development of firm resilience constitutes a fundamental prerequisite for achieving highquality economic growth.Adversities such as natural disasters,major public health emergencies,and economic recession may pose serious threats to the sustainable development of firms,making the importance of firm resilience increasingly prominent.Recent studies have identified the role of firm endowments and external operating environments in shaping firm resilience.Although the mechanisms differ,financial conditions and capital liquidity performance serve as key transmission variables.In terms of their impact on corporate finance and capital liquidity,the high social insurance contribution of Chinese firms directly constitute a component of operating costs.While extensive discussions have been conducted on how social insurance contribution expenditures affect firm investment,employment,innovation,and production efficiency,few studies have examined whether social insurance contribution expenditures and their adjustments influence firm resilience.Empirically,utilizing data from A-share listed non-financial firms in China spanning 2011 to 2022,firm resilience is measured,and the impact of social security contribution reduction is empirically examined.Moreover,the 2019 Comprehensive Program for Reducing Social Contribution Rates,issued by the General Office of the State Council,serves as a quasi-natural experiment for analyzing policy effects.Mediating effect are examined,and the interaction term is introduced to test the heterogeneity analysis.The empirical results reveal four key findings.First,the reduction of social security payment burden significantly improves firm resilience.The reduction directly cuts labor costs and expands the cash flow of firms,which not only reduces the risk of capital chain rupture when firms encounter risky impacts,but also affects their organism of production,investment decision-making,innovation inputs,and the relationship between supply and industrial chains,thus promoting the enhancement of firm resilience.Second,the decrease in the social security payment burden enhance firm resilience through two approaches:cutting labor costs and increasing innovation input.Third,reducing social security payment burden has a more significant effect on firm resilience in non-high-tech and state-owned firms.Forth,decreasing social security payment burden is mainly conducive to the enhancement of recovery resilience and growth ability of firms.Consequently,continued implementation of phased reductions in social insurance contribution burdens,increased support for enterprise R&D innovation,and refinement of differentiated preferential policies tailored to different firm types are recommended.Three contributions to the existing literature are made.First,constructing a new-era compliant firm resilience measurement index system.Current firm resilience measurement mainly relies on financial indicators(e.g.,business performance,employment,investment efficiency)or market indicators(e.g.,stock price,stock price volatility).This study incorporates supply chain-related indicators(e.g.,supplier dependence,customer dependence)and establishes an index system covering resilience's bearing,recovery,and growth capabilities.Second,expanding research on key antecedents of firm resilience by pioneering the test of social security payment burden's impact.Existing literature focuses on resilience cultivation through corporate resource endowments while neglecting the role of social security payment burden.Third,evaluating the policy effect of the 2019 Comprehensive Program for Reducing Social Security Payment Rates via a quasi-natural experiment.