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作为衡量城市系统应对外部扰动时所展现的抵抗力、恢复力及适应能力的综合性指标，城市韧性已逐渐成为推动可持续发展的核心议题。国家生态文明建设示范区政策旨在提升城市的生态文明建设水平并实现可持续发展，同时在增强城市韧性方面也发挥着积极作用。通过构建熵权-深度神经网络模型用于测度城市韧性指数，并将国家生态文明建设示范区政策作为准自然实验，利用多时点双重差分法分析国家生态文明建设示范区对城市韧性的具体影响。研究结果表明：第一，国家生态文明建设示范区政策可以显著提升城市韧性，这一结论通过了多种稳健性检验；第二，国家生态文明建设示范区政策可以通过绿色技术创新、环境规制两种渠道提升城市韧性；第三，国家生态文明建设示范区政策对资源型城市、非资源型城市、东部城市、胡焕庸线东南侧城市、陡坡及以上城市的城市韧性有显著提升作用；第四，碳排放强度在国家生态文明建设示范区政策与城市韧性之间起到负向的调节作用。基于上述结论，相关部门应坚持推进示范区建设工作，科学利用政策传导渠道，充分发挥政策在提升城市韧性方面的引导作用，推动形成生态文明共建共治共享的新格局。
Abstract：Urban resilience,as a comprehensive indicator of the resistance,recovery,and adaptability demonstrated by urban systems in response to external shocks,has become a core issue in urban sustainable development.The establishment of the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone aims to enhance ecological civilization construction across cities and achieve sustainable development.At the same time,it plays a positive role in strengthening urban resilience.The entropy weight-deep neural network model(EW-DNN)is constructed to measure urban resilience,and then the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone policy is treated as a quasi-natural experiment.The multiperiod difference in difference method(the Multi-period DID)is adopted to analyze the specific impact of the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone on urban resilience.The results indicate that,firstly,the policy of the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone can significantly enhance urban resilience,the conclusion that has been validated through multiple robustness tests.Secondly,the policy of the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone can enhance urban resilience through channels such as green technology innovation and environmental regulations.Thirdly,the establishment of the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone has a significant improvement effect on the urban resilience of resource-based cities,non-resourcebased cities,eastern cities,cities southeast of the Hu Huanyong Line,and cities with steep slopes,and above.Fourthly,carbon emission intensity plays a negative moderating role between the establishment of the National Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone and urban resilience.Based on the above research conclusions,relevant departments should persist in promoting the establishment of demonstration zone,scientifically utilizing policy transmission channels,fully leveraging the guiding role of policies in enhancing urban resilience,and promoting the formation of a new pattern of joint construction,joint governance and shared benefits of ecological civilization.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.20207/j.cnki.1007-3116.20251217.003
中图分类号:F299.2;X321
引用信息:
[1]蒋锋,龙珂良.国家生态文明建设示范区对城市韧性的影响研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2026,41(01):61-76.DOI:10.20207/j.cnki.1007-3116.20251217.003.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国金融安全统计监测、预警与对策研究”（23&ZD057）; 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“机器学习因果推断方法及其在碳排放政策评估中的应用研究”（22YJAZH038）
2025-12-18
2025-12-18
2025-12-18