统计与信息论坛

数字经济与产业发展深度融合是实现新时代中国经济高质量发展的重要驱动力量。基于2015—2018年中国288个城市面板数据，构建双向固定效应、中介效应和调节效应三种回归模型，实证检验并探讨了数字经济发展对城市产业结构水平的影响及内在机制。研究发现：数字经济发展与产业结构高度化水平呈正相关，且能抑制产业结构偏离均衡状态，提高产业结构合理化水平，在一系列稳健性检验之后这一结论仍然成立；同时，数字经济不仅能促进产业结构发展，还能通过提高居民消费和激励城市研发创新两种间接路径对产业结构转型升级产生积极影响；此外，数字经济对产业结构水平的影响还受到地方政府干预行为的调节作用，在地方政府合理的行政管理下，数字经济对产业转型升级的积极作用更为明显；最后，数字经济发展对产业结构水平的提升作用具有区域异质性和城市规模异质性，在中西部地区和特大城市对于促进产业结构转型升级的效果更为明显。本研究为国家进一步加快数字化发展、规范地方政府行为、制定精准的产业政策提供科学决策依据，有利于缩小数字经济发展和产业结构水平的区域差异。

The deep integration of digital economy and industrial development is an important driving force for the high-quality development of China's economy in the new era.Based on the panel data of 288 cities in China from 2015 to 2018,three regression models of bidirectional fixed effect, mediating effect and moderating effect are constructed to empirically test and discuss the influence and internal mechanism of digital economy development on the level of urban industrial structure.It is found that the development of digital economy is positively correlated with the upgrading level of industrial structure, and can inhibit the deviation of industrial structure from equilibrium and improve the rationalization level of industrial structure.This conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.At the same time, the digital economy can not only promote the development of industrial structure, but also have a positive impact on the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure through two indirect paths, namely, increasing household consumption and encouraging urban R&D innovation.In addition, the impact of digital economy on the level of industrial structure is also regulated by local government intervention.Under the reasonable administration of local governments, the positive effect of digital economy on industrial transformation and upgrading is more obvious.Finally, the role of digital economic development in promoting the level of industrial structure has regional heterogeneity and urban scale heterogeneity, and the effect of promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in the central and western regions and megacities is more obvious.The conclusions are helpful to narrow the regional differences of digital economic development and industrial structure level, and provide scientific decision-making basis for the country to further accelerate digital development, standardize local government behavior and formulate accurate industrial policy.