统计与信息论坛

扎实推进制造业节能减排对于中国实现“双碳”目标和促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型意义重大。以中国自愿参与型环境规制中的绿色工厂试点为政策背景，选取2011—2022年制造业上市公司数据，综合采用双重差分法（DID）、倾向得分匹配法（PSM）和工具变量法实证探讨绿色工厂试点对制造业企业碳绩效的影响，并从绿色创新能力和全要素生产率的角度对其中的传导机制进行检验。研究表明，绿色工厂试点显著提升了制造业企业碳绩效，经过一系列稳健性检验和内生性检验后该结论依然稳健。异质性分析表明，在东部、非国有企业和小规模企业中推行绿色工厂试点对制造业碳绩效的提升效果更为显著。通过进一步的机制检验发现，绿色工厂试点分别从绿色创新能力和全要素生产率两个方面提高了制造业企业碳绩效。研究结果丰富了绿色工厂试点对环境影响的文献外延，为促进中国制造业实现低碳发展提供了可资借鉴的实施路径。制造业企业应积极参与申报和建设绿色工厂试点，不断提升企业的绿色创新能力和全要素生产率，充分发挥绿色工厂政策试点的引导作用。

The promotion of energy conservation and the reduction of carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry is crucial for China to achieve its dual-carbon goal and facilitate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.This study takes the green factory identification under China's voluntary environmental regulation as the policy context.This study analyzes data of listed manufacturing companies from 2011 to 2022 to empirically explore the impact of the green factory identification on the carbon performance of the manufacturing industry.Subsequently,this study employs the difference-in-differences(DID)method,propensity score matching(PSM),and instrumental variable methods,and further examine the mechanisms through green innovation capabilities and total factor productivity.These findings indicate that the green factory identification significantly enhances the carbon performance of manufacturing enterprises.This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the green factory identification has a more pronounced effect on carbon performance improvement,especially in the eastern regions of China,as well as in non-state and small-scale enterprises.Further mechanism analysis shows that the green factory identification improves carbon performance through two primary channels:enhancing green innovation capabilities and increasing total factor productivity.This study enriches the literature on the environmental impacts of the green factory identification and provides a reference framework for promoting low-carbon development in China's manufacturing sector.Manufacturing enterprises are encouraged to actively engage in the implementation and development of the green factory identification.Continuous improvement of their green innovation capabilities and total factor productivity is essential for maximizing the benefits offered by the green factory identification.