统计与信息论坛

低收入群体家庭福利水平的提升是推进共同富裕的重要内容。对扶贫政策的福利水平效应进行了理论与实证分析，考虑到福利水平的逻辑递进关系，运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据分别以人均劳动收入、多维贫困对福利水平进行测度。首先，利用双重差分模型(DID)分析发现，扶贫政策显著提升了贫困家庭的福利水平，降低了家庭多维贫困，提高了家庭人均劳动收入，并探讨了结果的稳健性。其次，基于需求层次理论和可行能力理论对家庭内生动力与自我发展能力进行了界定，并运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据进行测算，进而就内生动力和自我发展能力与家庭福利水平的关系进行分析。分析发现，内生动力和自我发展能力对人均劳动收入和多维贫困的影响存在差异，自我发展能力对家庭福利水平的影响存在群体差异。最后，对内生动力与自我发展能力在扶贫政策影响低收入群体家庭福利水平方面的机制进行分析。分析发现，扶贫政策通过显著提高低收入群体家庭内生动力进而改善家庭福利水平；扶贫政策未能显著提高低收入家庭的自我发展能力。锚定低收入群体的帮扶政策，在降低政策参与门槛的同时，更应该关注低收入群体在政策中的参与程度；应进一步挖掘家庭发展的限制来自能力转化还是自我发展能力不足，以使帮扶政策产生持久性成效并助力乡村振兴。

Enhancing the welfare levels of low-income groups in rural areas is not only crucial for consolidating poverty alleviation achievements, but also a top priority in promoting common prosperity.This research conducts a theoretical analysis of the impact of poverty alleviation policies on welfare levels.Given the logical progression in welfare improvement, welfare using per capita labor income and multi-dimensional poverty indices are measured, employing a difference-in-differences model to empirically analyze the policy effects.Targeted poverty alleviation and rural revitalization emphasize farmers' subjectivity, with stimulating endogenous motivation and improving self-development capabilities being key strategies to reduce policy dependence among low-income groups and narrow the gaps with other groups.The concepts of endogenous motivation and self-development capability are first defined based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory and Sen's capability approach, analyzing their relationship and mechanisms concerning family welfare levels.Then methods are developed to quantify these factors, using China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) data to compare differences across income groups and years, and further examine the impacts of endogenous motivation and self-development capability on the welfare levels of low-income families.Finally, empirically analyze how these factors mediate the effect of poverty alleviation policies on family welfare.The findings indicate: firstly, poverty alleviation policies have significantly improved the welfare levels of poor families by reducing multi-dimensional poverty and increasing per capita labor income.The robustness of these results is confirmed through common trends, heterogeneous treatment effects, and placebo tests.Secondly, endogenous motivation has a significant positive impact on the welfare levels of rural low-income families, effectively alleviating multi-dimensional poverty and boosting per capita labor income.However, the self-development capability of rural low-income families is significantly lower than that of non-low-income families.Finally, poverty alleviation policies enhance family welfare primarily by boosting endogenous motivation, while not significantly improves self-development capability, indicating that enhancing this capability should be a long-term focus during the transition from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization.Policymakers should explore the underlying reasons for weak self-development capability to better leverage for improving welfare levels, ensuring the sustainability of poverty alleviation efforts and supporting rural revitalization.