统计与信息论坛

随着产业链供应链协同合作的重要性日益凸显,企业数字化转型的就业效应能否沿着供应链溢出值得深究。采用2009—2022年中国A股上市公司数据,实证检验供应商数字化转型对客户企业劳动雇佣规模的影响及作用机制。研究发现,供应商数字化转型能显著扩大客户企业劳动雇佣规模。机制分析表明,供应商数字化转型主要通过改善客户企业的资金状况、扩大客户企业的生产规模与提高客户企业的市场竞争力三条路径,来增加其劳动雇佣规模。异质性分析发现,在不同的情境中供应商数字化转型对客户企业劳动雇佣规模的扩大作用存在明显差异。当客户企业常规任务强度越高、超额雇员率越高时,该扩大作用会有所减弱,而这种作用在劳动密集型的客户企业中更显著。在供应商与客户企业分属不同行业或不同地区,客户企业为国有企业、高成长性企业与高生产率企业的情况下,供应商数字化转型对其劳动雇佣规模的溢出作用更强。若客户企业位于劳动力市场一体化水平较高地区或东部地区时,这种作用也更为突出。本研究的结论为促进实体经济与数字经济深度融合,提升产业链供应链现代化水平及稳定与扩大就业提供重要的政策启示。

Employment is the foundation of peoples livelihood,which bears on social stability and economic development.In the context of the booming development of the digital economy,digital transformation has not only emerged as a key path for enterprises to enhance competitiveness, but also has a profound impact on the job market.By improving production efficiency and expanding market size,digital transformation of enterprises can enhance their capacity to absorb employment.As collaboration within industrial and supply chains continues to gain importance,enterprises along the chain establish financial and business connections through their input-output relationships.Consequently,decisions made by one enterprise are transmitted to others along the chain, giving rise to supply chain spillover effects.Therefore,it is worth exploring whether the employment effects of digital transformation of enterprises can spill over along the supply chain.Using data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2022,this study empirically examines the impact and mechanism of digital transformation of suppliers on the labor employment scale client firms.It is found that digital transformation of suppliers significantly expands the scale of employment in clients.Mechanism tests indicate three primary channels:improving clients ' financial conditions,enlarging clients ' production scale,and enhancing clients ' market competitiveness.Heterogeneity analyses reveal notable differences across contexts.The employment expansion effect weakens when clients firms have higher levels routine task intensity or greater overstaffing,but is more pronounced among labor-intensive clients.The spillover is stronger when suppliers and clients operate in different industries or regions,and when clients are state-owned,high-growth,or high-productivity firms.The effect is also more prominent for clients located in regions with higher labor-market integration or those in Eastern China.The conclusion of this study provides a theoretical basis and empirical evidence to clarify the impact mechanism of supplier's digital transformation on the labor employment scale of clients.In light of this,four policy suggestions are proposed:accelerate the promotion of enterprises digital transformation, play the “multiplier" role of employment;strengthen the linkage effect of industrial and supply chains, improve the modernization level of industrial and supply chains;play the employment creation effect of digital transformation,prevent and resolve the impact of employment substitution;formulate differentiated support policies,and promote the effective linkage between digital transformation and stable employment.These suggestions provide important policy implications for promoting the deep integration of the real economy and digital economy,enhancing the modernization level of industrial and supply chains,and stabilizing and expanding employment scale.