统计与信息论坛

人工智能作为引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革的核心驱动力,深刻重塑城市创新的生态体系与发展路径。利用双重差分法系统评估了国家新一代人工智能创新发展试验区对城市创新能力“量”和“质”两个维度的影响效应、作用机制及其异质性。研究发现,试验区政策能够推动城市创新能力“量质齐升”,这一结论在采用工具变量法进行内生性分析以及一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明,上述关系通过集聚效应、吸引创新人才和优化资源配置得以实现。异质性分析显示,试验区政策对创新能力“量”的促进效应在中部城市更为显著,对创新能力“质”的促进效应在东部城市更为显著;对非中心城市的促进作用大于中心城市。进一步分析发现,该政策对周边200km内城市的创新数量、100km内城市的创新质量具有显著辐射作用,并在300km～350km距离内对于城市创新质量也呈现出溢出效应。研究成果不仅为深入理解试验区政策的影响提供了经验证据,而且对促进城市培育创新能力提供了政策启示。

As the core driving force leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,artificial intelligence is profoundly reshaping the ecological system and development pathways of urban innovation.The difference-in-differences method is employed to systematically evaluate the impact effects,mechanisms,and heterogeneity of the National New-generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zones on the urban innovation capacity in both quantity and quality dimensions.Findings indicate that the pilot zone policy has a positively significant effect on both the quantity and quality of urban innovation capabilities,and the conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity concerns and conducting a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis indicates that the above relationship is realized through agglomeration effects,attraction of innovative talent,and optimization of resource allocation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy ' s promoting effect on innovation "quantity" is more pronounced in central cities, while its effect on innovation "quality" is more significant in eastern cities.Additionally, the policy exerts a stronger promoting effect on non-central cities than on central cities.Further analysis finds that the policy has significant spillover effects on innovation quantity for cities within 200 km and on innovation quality for cities within 100 km,and it also exhibits spillover effects on urban innovation quality at distances of 300-350 km.This research not only provides empirical evidence for a deeper understanding of the impact of the pilot zone policy but also offers policy insights for fostering innovation capacity in Chinese cities.