统计与信息论坛

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的加速演进,新质生产力作为当代先进生产力,成为推动全国产业结构升级的有力支撑。基于2010—2022年中国285个地级市面板数据,探究新质生产力发展对产业结构升级的影响效应,并尝试从供给侧和需求侧对作用机制进行分析。研究发现,新质生产力能显著推动产业结构升级,该结论得到多种常规及重设双重机器学习模型的稳健性验证。机制检验表明,新质生产力主要通过在供给侧提升全要素生产率实现供给优化、在需求侧促进消费升级实现拉动需求以及通过金融科技实现供需协同,进而推动产业结构升级。异质性检验表明,在中西部地区、产业结构升级水平较低以及在劳动者、劳动对象、生产资料、财政分权、市场潜力和资源禀赋较低水平的情况下,新质生产力对产业结构升级的正向影响显著较高。根据研究结论,应注重供需双侧提升及各种条件异质性,从加快创新驱动体制机制改革、优化配置新质生产要素,大力发展先进制造业、以科技创新驱动提升产业竞争力,才能加快产业结构升级步伐。

With the accelerated evolution of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change,the new quality productive forces,as a contemporary advanced productivity,has become a powerful support to promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure.Based on the data at the level of 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2022,the effect of the development of new quality productive forces on the upgrading of industrial structure is explored,and tries to analyze the mechanism of action from the supply side and the demand side.It is found that the new quality productive forces can significantly promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure,and this conclusion is validated by the robustness of multiple conventional and reset dual machine learning models.The mechanism test shows that NQP can optimize supply by improving total factor productivity on the supply side,boost demand by promoting consumption upgrading on the demand side,and synergize supply and demand through fintech,and then promote the upgrading of the industrial structure.The heterogeneity test shows that the positive impact of NQP on industrial structure upgrading is significantly higher in the case of central and western regions,low levels of industrial structure upgrading,laborers,labor objects,means of production,financial decentralization,market potential,and resource endowment.It is indicated that the pace of industrial structure upgrading can only be accelerated by advancing innovation-driven institutional mechanism reform,optimizing the allocation of new-quality factors of production,vigorously developing advanced manufacturing industries,enhancing industrial competitiveness driven by scientific and technological innovation,and focusing on the upgrading paths of supply and demand on both sides and the heterogeneity of various conditions.