统计与信息论坛

面对全球经济增长动力衰退，中国经济由外循环主导的价值链结构将转向双循环格局下的价值链结构。结合全球价值链与国内价值链，构建双循环价值链的统一分析框架，并基于投入产出表的匹配及平衡，测算区域双循环间接价值链、折返价值链和区外价值链的嵌入特征，对推动新发展格局下区域经济平衡可持续发展具有重要现实意义。研究发现：区域生产存在明显的“间接偏好”和“区外偏好”。中西部地区“内循环偏好”普遍大于东部沿海地区。东部沿海地区是构成区域间价值链分工联系的核心区域，中西部区域则大多分布在分工网络的中外层。随着价值链分工方式的逐渐复杂化，区域的“东向集聚”特征愈发明显。商业、运输业和服务业在所有价值链分工中所带来的增加值均有较高份额，机械工业、交通运输设备和电气电子设备等中高技术制造业在外循环价值链中占有不小比例。要实现中国产业部门双循环价值链快速升级，应更加重视促进要素流动、破除区域壁垒；挖掘市场潜力、培育品牌企业；提升配套能力、构建自主链条。

Facing with the decline of global economic growth momentum, the value chain structure dominated by external circulation in the Chinese economy will shift towards a value chain structure under a dual circulation pattern.By combining the global value chain with the domestic value chain, a unified analysis framework for dual cycle value chains is constructed.Based on the matching and balance of input-output tables, the embedding characteristics of regional dual cycle indirect value chains, reentrant value chains, and external value chains are calculated, which is of great practical significance for promoting balanced and sustainable development of regional economy under the new development pattern.It is found that there are obvious “indirect preferences” and “external preferences” in regional production.The preference for internal circulation in the central and western regions is generally greater than that in the eastern coastal regions.The eastern coastal region is the core area that constitutes the division of labor and connections among regions, while the central and western regions are mostly distributed in the middle and outer layers of the division of labor network.As the division of labor in the value chain gradually becomes more complex, the characteristic of regional “eastward agglomeration” becomes increasingly apparent.The added value brought by commerce, transportation, and service industries in all value chain divisions is relatively high, while high-tech manufacturing industries such as mechanical industry, transportation equipment, and electrical and electronic equipment account for a considerable proportion in the external value chain.To achieve rapid upgrading of the dual circulation value chain in China's industrial sector, more attention should be paid to promoting factor flow and breaking down regional barriers, exploring market potential and cultivating brand enterprises, enhancing supporting capabilities and building independent chains.