统计与信息论坛

为探求经济增长的新动能，从全要素生产率中将偏向型技术进步的增强效应剥离出来，需构建符合中国国情的要素增强型技术进步生产函数模型。依据2003—2022年281个地级及以上城市的面板数据进行测算，将城市总产出增长率分解为技术进步效应、要素投入效应、技术偏向效应和要素配置效应，为经济增长动能分解提供一个新框架。研究发现：(1)技术进步的驱动要素发生结构性转变。劳动增强型技术进步指数呈持续增长态势，而资本增强型技术进步2013年前边际贡献显著衰减，全要素生产率增长源实现资本驱动向劳动驱动的转换。(2)技术进步方向呈现出梯度差异，南方城市、东部城市、大型城市的劳动偏向型技术进步强度逐步弱化，欠发达地区的城市近十年有更明显的劳动偏向型技术进步。(3)经济增长动能分解显示，资本技术效应呈全域收敛趋势，而劳动技术效应呈现区域分异特征。研究揭示出中国经济增长新动能的来源、演进趋势及区域差异，为理解区域经济转型的要素重构逻辑提供新的经验证据。政府应制定差异化政策，建立技术资本要素适配体系，实施资本配置效率导向型政策，构建人力资本梯度补偿机制，破解要素配置的空间粘性。

China's “extensive” economic growth mode driven by investment is gradually shifting towards a high-quality economic development mode driven by innovation.Therefore, clarifying the new impetus of economic growth and achieving the transformation towards an “intensive” economic growth mode driven by efficiency have become an urgent and important task.Against the background of China's non-steady economic growth, it is important to explore the growth of total factor productivity(TFP) and its sources, as well as to analyze the new impetus of China's economic growth from the perspective of biased technological progress.In order to explore the new impetus of economic growth and separate the enhancing effect of biased technological progress from total factor productivity.It is necessary to construct a factor-augmented technological progress production function that aligns with China's national conditions.Based on panel data of 281 prefecture-level and above cities from 2003 to 2022,the total output growth rate of cities is decomposed into technological progress effect, factor input effect, technology bias effect, and factor allocation effect, providing a new framework for decomposing economic growth momentum.This study shows that there has been a structural shift in the driving factors of technological progress.The index of labor-augmenting technological progress shows a continuous growth trend, while the marginal contribution of capital-augmenting technological progress significantly declined before 2013.During the reporting period, the overall labor income share showed a U-shaped characteristic.The growth rate of total factor productivity was mainly contributed by capital technological progress before 2010,then it was jointly contributed by capital technological progress and labor technological progress.The source of total factor productivity growth achieved a paradigm shift from capital driven to labor driven.Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that there are gradient differences in the direction of technological progress.The intensity of labor biased technological progress in southern cities, eastern cities, and large cities has gradually weakened.Cities in less developed areas have seen more labor-oriented technological progress in the past decade.The decomposition of economic growth momentum shows that the capital technology effect exhibits a global convergence trend, while the labor technology effect exhibits regional differentiation characteristics.Before 2013,the capital investment effect of underdeveloped cities was generally higher than that of developed regions, but it showed the opposite trend after 2013.The overall trend of labor input effect in cities in different regions is same, but cities in developed regions have higher labor input effects than those in underdeveloped ones.This study reveals the sources, evolutionary trends, and regional differences of new driving forces for China's economic growth, providing new empirical evidence for understanding the logic of factor reconstruction in China's regional economic transformation.The government should formulate differentiated policies, establish a technology capital factor adaptation system, implement capital allocation efficiency oriented policies, and construct a human capital gradient compensation mechanism to break the spatial stickiness of factor allocation.